Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Oil Demand over Time and Income

In the first chapter of Oil 101, figure 1-13 illustrates how oil demand per capita in an individual country initially evolves due to income changes until income reaches a European or North American level. Once per capita oil consumption reaches 1980 European or North American levels it ceases growing with income.

Page 18, Fig. 1-13, Morgan Downey, 2009, Oil 101

The chart below displays the same data as in Oil 101 but additionally shows the evolution over time. The question for oil forecasting is whether there is enough oil for China, India and other nations in the lower left corner to reach even European levels of oil consumption as their income grows.

(Notes for animated chart above: Vertical axis is annual income per capita. Horizontal axis is barrels of oil consumed per capita per year. The sizes of the circles are related to each nation's relative oil consumption. The chart may be more clear if expanded to your full screen size.)

The chart below is another variation on the same theme, allowing individual countries to be tracked (click on the relevant circle) as well as allowing the scale to be changed from linear to logarithmic. You can click on almost everything in this chart to change the view. Click on the 'Play' button to start the animation.

If you are having problems viewing the above chart or would like to open it in a separate window then click here.
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