US Traffic Growth

In April 2009, miles driven by US motorists increased year/year for the first time since late 2007. The US DOT traffic data released today for April is a lagging indicator of oil demand. The average price of crude oil (NYMEX WTI) back in April 2009 was $49.95 per barrel. It will be interesting to see if this traffic recovery continues now that oil is hovering around $70 per barrel. Complicating year/year comparisons this year will that this year's data is being compared to a period when oil prices spiked during 2008 and the credit crisis.

Oil Markets and Economic Recovery

Two interesting monthly oil numbers which came out today are US vehicles miles travelled (upper chart) for February and Chinese oil demand numbers for March (lower chart - with US data superimposed). Chinese new vehicle sales were up 10% year on year in March 2009 and so the resumption of strong positive Chinese oil demand growth is likely soon. The question is, will oil demand in the US and the rest of the world turn positive soon also. The trend, at least in US vehicle miles traveled, would indicate so.