Thursday, August 13, 2009

Oil Prices a Bubble? No.

I appeared on CNBC TV's Closing Bell live this afternoon with CNBC's Michelle Caruso-Cabrera and Addison Armstrong. The debate was whether investors should be bracing for a commodity bubble. As you know, I am a fundamental supply and demand guy and am sceptical of blaming anything on bubbles. Monetary bubbles do occur, but often bubbles are used as an excuse.

Clear evidence of a bubble (such as that which occurred in housing) is where there is a increase in prices in addition to an increase in unsold inventories.

Oil, copper and sugar inventories are all low and supply is restrained. This is why prices are rallying. The global inventory evidence clearly shows real fundamentals and not a monetary bubble are the reason for higher prices. (click here to view on CNBC's site if it doesn't open below)

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